| Welcome to FCNL's Biweekly Iraq and Region Update for September 19, 2008 In this update . . . - Senate procedure stops Iran sanctions amendment for now;
- bill introduced to prohibit covert U.S. operations against Iran;
- Israeli-Palestinian progress awaits new governments, Palestinian reform;
...and a selection of important articles, documents, and reports.
I. In Congress Senate Narrowly Fails to Approve New Iran Sanctions
The Senate failed by a procedural hair's breadth to vote on including a counterproductive Iran sanctions measure in the 2008 military authorization bill. The measure was based on a comprehensive Iran sanctions bill that FCNL has been lobbying against. FCNL opposed the amendment because it would have added to existing sanctions without requiring what FCNL believes is the essential missing incentive to get Iran to change its policies: negotiations with the United States. More sanctions will not help. The November 2007 National Intelligence Estimate concluded that disincentives alone would not prompt Iran to alter its nuclear program to satisfy the U.N. Security Council or lead Iran to resolve its other disputes with the United States. "Opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence" were also needed, the intelligence estimate said. So far, Congress has been willing to wield the stick but not to offer the carrot. This amendment could have come on a military authorization bill whose course to passage was one of the weirdest ever, according to long-time observers. Senate negotiators huddled behind closed doors for hours on Tuesday and Wednesday trying to agree on which amendments they should vote on among the more than 200 amendments that senators had filed. Meanwhile, senators ate up the 30 hours of time allotted to debate the bill by talking on the Senate floor about everything but the bill itself. Late Wednesday afternoon Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Carl Levin (MI) and ranking committee member Sen. John Warner (VA) offered an agreement that bundled some 100 amendments, including the one imposing economic sanctions on Iran, into a package for a single vote. But one senator, Jim DeMint (SC), objected, apparently because he had failed to win inclusion of his own amendment in the package, thereby preventing the package deal from going forward. Sen. Christopher Dodd (CT) then took the floor and pleaded for unanimous consent to allow a vote on the amendment that he and Sen. Richard Shelby (AL) had authored mandating new Iran sanctions. But Warner objected, saying he had supported inclusion of the Iran amendment in the package deal of 100 amendments but would not permit a vote on the Iran sanctions measure alone. In the end, the Senate passed the military authorization bill on September 17 by an 88-8 vote after a week of work in which it considered only 4 amendments on September 10 and none after that. Proponents of more Iran sanctions have failed this time, but they have strong support in both the Senate and House. We at FCNL expect further "stick-only" Iran measures to come up, especially if Congress comes back into session after the November elections. We will continue to lobby against more sanctions and for the direct U.S.-Iran negotiations essential to peacefully resolving the differences between the United States and Iran. Bill to Prevent Covert U.S. Operations against Iran Introduced
In the wake of press reports that the United States has recently stepped up covert actions to destabilize the Iranian government, Barbara Lee (CA) and 5 other members of the House have introduced the Transparent Actions over Covert Tactics in Iran Act (H.R. 6951). The bill would prohibit funding for secret CIA and Pentagon actions by U.S. forces and surrogates to overthrow the Iranian government. Press reports suggest that secret U.S. actions have already led to acts of sabotage and lethal attacks in Iran. The bill's findings assert that U.S. security is not enhanced when U.S. actions prompt other nations "to distrust its public pronouncements, question its motives, and view its actions with suspicion." Secret efforts to undermine the Iranian regime, the bill says, are "antithetical to democratic values and respect for the rule of law." Urge your representative to cosponsor H.R. 6951. With little time remaining in this session of Congress, the bill is unlikely to see action this year. Members should still be encouraged to cosponsor the bill. If the bill gains broad support, it will send a strong message of disapproval of illegal U.S. actions in Iran. It will also improve the legislation's chances of passing in the next session of Congress.
II. Annapolis Peace Process Watch With the clock running out for the Bush administration, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert reduced to caretaker status, and the continuing Fatah-Hamas rift in Palestinian politics, observers agree that no progress in the Annapolis process can be expected anytime soon. A new U.S. administration and new Israeli government will first be needed, and Palestinian national unity will somehow have to be restored. Current Israeli Foreign Minister Zippi Livni won a razor-thin victory over Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz to head the ruling Kadima Party this week, a victory that will make her Israel's next prime minister if she can put together a parliamentary majority. If not, another party could form a government, or Israel could hold elections early next year. Meanwhile, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas hinted that he supports reconciliation with Hamas, which will be needed for any peace agreement to work. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, he wrote that "Hamas must come to the table, willing to discuss a true national dialogue based on the PLO political program. Palestinian national consensus and unity is a pressing need for our people who are thirsty for liberation." He also suggested that long overdue reform was coming to his own Fatah movement in an upcoming party conference "to allow a new generation to take charge of the Palestinian national movement."
III. Keep on Lobbying Urge your representative to cosponsor the Transparent Actions over Covert Tactics in Iran Act (H.R. 6951). Introduced yesterday, the bill is a response to credible press reports that the United States is escalating a campaign of sabotage and lethal attacks inside Iran carried out by surrogate groups and U.S. special forces.
IV. Articles, Documents, and Reports The 5 Former Secretaries of State Ride Again to Rescue U.S. Iran Policy
On September 15, Madeleine Albright, Colin Powell, Warren Christopher, Henry Kissinger, and James Baker renewed their call for the U.S. government to expand diplomatic negotiations with Iran. The 5 former secretaries of state issued their new call for talks with Iran without delay during a roundtable discussion, "The Next President: A World of Challenges," that will air on CNN on Saturday, September 20, at 9 p.m. and on Sunday, September 21, at 2 p.m. EST. World Bank Report Shows No Improvement in Palestinian Economy
A World Bank report released this week said the Palestinian economy shrank by 0.5 percent in 2007 and is expected to grow less than 1 percent in 2008. The World Bank said that commitments by Israel, the United States, and other countries to improve the economy and thereby build support for the peace process are having little effect. Israel, it said, had lifted some West Bank roadblocks but continued to impose restrictions that severely limit the Palestinian economy. Many industries remain crippled; construction, for example, remains less than one-fifth the size it was in 1999. Crisis Group Sees Hamas Consolidation in Gaza, Poor Prospects for Palestinian Unity
An International Crisis Group report sees prospects for Palestinian unity and a credible peace process as "distant and illusory" at present. Hamas consolidation in Gaza, on the one hand, and U.S., Israeli, and Fatah policy to isolate Hamas, on the other, are leading to greater Palestinian geographical and political separation, which the report said will be hard to reverse. | 
